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Mountain West

Two non-conventional picks here for us: #Hawaii and #UtahState as our 1-2 teams in the Mountain West. These high flying offenses put up tons of points, but in different ways. Hawaii actually plays slow and methodical. Utah State is faster. Utah State has some tough non-con games, but we actually like that; it makes them tougher. Look for a Hawaii cover +11 in their Week 0 non-con with #Arizona too. We like Cole McDonald and Jordan love--the QBs for each team. Meanwhile, Boise State has to reload at QB which is why our model only has them as the third best #MWC team this year. 

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SEC

Our model for the SEC doesn't show many surprises. Nothing bold in saying that: Alabama's offense is great. #Georgia is just as good as Clemson and #Bama. LSU is right behind those guys. Florida is at the top of our Tier 2 teams--along with Oregon and Utah. While every seems to be high on Franks and Mullen's QB whisperer reputation, we are not as high on Franks from the tape. He did show improvement in the second half of 2018, but this year is make of break for him and the #Gators.  What is clear to us in our projections though is that #Missouri could be a bit of a surprise this year. Loads of talent and strong coaching coupled...

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Pac-12

We get the Utah #Pac12 love; they are our #7 team in the nation. We wish we got them to win the conference at the 20 to 1 numbers from early summer. Congrats to those who got in at those numbers. What we're surprised about is the tepid love on Oregon this year. You'll only go as far as your QB will take you, and people are not valuing Justin Herbert and the Oregon OL enough in our eyes. Together, they are elite. With one of the top recruiting classes and a bunch of California kids ready to produce (Mycah Pittman), we are high on Herbert being more efficient AND explosive in 2019. Going to Stanford in Week 4 is a hell of a...

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Sun Belt

In the #FunBelt, we like Arkansas State this year. They are our number 1 power rated team in the Sun Belt Conference. Overall, in FBS, they are just inside of our Top 50 teams. They have a lot of returning playmakers and four starting members of their OL back. We expect a better offense this year and a stout defense. They play Georgia in Week 3 -- we're not going to call for an upset alert here over the Dawgs, but anything over 30 points we will take. We have #Georgia as a 23-point favorite in that one.We are going against the norm by not having Appalachian State as our #1squad. We do like them and have them rated in our #2 spot. This is not...

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Conference USA

Our power ratings have these top three C-USA teams at 54, 59, and 61, respectively. If NCAA FB was like NCAA BB, Conference USA would have three teams dancing which is solid. The conference as a whole is pulled down though as they have two of our lowest rated teams (UTEP and Old Dominion). Not too much divides all of the top three teams, but North Texas stands out as a Top 10 offense in our power ratings. Mason Fine had a breakout 2018 campaign and with weapons returning and--more importantly--much of his O-line we expect an efficient offense that tears through C-USA defenses. They have a tough early season road test at Cal-Berkeley. Southern Miss has a, relatively speaking, top defense. Our hope with them is that they make...

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